Petro Georgiou and the Peaceful Transfer of Power

Oh yes, oh yes, we have a theory.

Petro Georgiou's new draft legislation, strategically released to the media and community groups prior to its discussion in the party room, is one of the most radical, public internal challenges to Liberal party policy and polity since, like, the dawn of time. It effectively decriminalises asylum seekers - well, most of them, anyway - and actually puts some checks and balances on the detention system and on DIMIA, forces ministerial intervention and offers compassionate amnesty to people who have been in the system for years. While I believe it does not go far enough - for example, even under this new legislation, you have to be imprisoned sans having committed a crime for over a year before the prospect of release is mentioned - it is a start, a radical challenge to policy and is genuinely motivated by the concept that Human Rights are not just Citizen Rights. See text of bill on Margo Kingston.

The timing could not have been better. Could not. Post Cornelia Rau, white woman in distress. And, of course, of course, in the context of The Stoush (phrase coined from Liam). And here is the great truth of it all:

Costello is testing his numbers.

Howard is apparently manoevring to knock Georgiou off, if you believe Crikey. Old Petro has nothing to lose and much to gain - he's never been offered the senior ministry he was expected to walk into, and his consolation prize of parliamentary secretary was insulting - not surprisingly he refused it. He's also very very fond of the old Liberal philosophies of individual rights, and this includes those of non-citizen refugees (apparently - shocking, I know), and his electorate is full of his kind of people, and not Howard's battlers. Meanwhile, Costello has been busy pasting his name around town as the humanitarian alternative.

It's a head-rolling issue. Howard can't back down on this one, and he won't - unlike the recent IVF backlash , where he placated his revolting numbers to weather the leadership storm. If he allows a conscience vote, he'll be seen as doing just that. If he refuses a conscience vote, Costello's numbers will go through the roof. Public opinion is the key to this battle, and even if Howard gets Da Battlerz onside it could be a Phyrric victory. Costello has a track record of standing silent behind the PM, and there's no need for him to speak out to this motion, although he may choose to if he thinks the public is sufficiently onside. Georgiou, who has nothing to lose but his seat, will take the brunt and feel good about it.

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